4/1/2023 0 Comments Real gdp forecast bar graph![]() They have revised upward their estimates for job gains in 20. The forecasters are also more optimistic about the employment outlook. The annual-average projections for 20 are each 0.4 percentage point below those of the last survey. Using the annual-average computation, the panelists predict the unemployment rate will decline from 5.5 percent in 2021 to 3.8 percent in 2024. The forecasters predict unemployment will decrease from a projected 5.8 percent this quarter to 4.5 percent in the second quarter of 2022. The upward revision to growth is accompanied by a brighter outlook for the unemployment rate. The projections for 20 are up from 4.5 percent and 3.7 percent, respectively, in the last survey. Using the annual-average over annual-average computation, the forecasters expect real GDP to grow at an annual rate of 6.3 percent in 2021 and 4.3 percent in 2022. Over the next three quarters, the panelists also see a stronger rebound in output growth than they predicted previously. The panel predicts real GDP will grow at an annual rate of 7.9 percent this quarter, up 2.9 percentage points from the prediction in the last survey. economy looks stronger now than it did three months ago, according to 36 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia. Faster Pace of Economic Rebound with Stronger Labor Markets
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